Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-18

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country


Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-08) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection


Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-08 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases


Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions


Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-08)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-08) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.
Country New confirmed cases by infection date Expected change in daily cases Effective reproduction no. Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan 424 (366 – 475) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (7.7 – 16)
Algeria 191 (168 – 218) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) 79 (19 – -35)
Argentina 321 (285 – 353) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (8.2 – 20)
Armenia 176 (145 – 198) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 20 (10 – 370)
Australia 23 (10 – 34) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 32 (5.5 – -8.2)
Austria 64 (44 – 81) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 13 (6.3 – -450)
Azerbaijan 114 (90 – 132) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 19 (9.3 – -230)
Bahrain 300 (267 – 329) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 25 (13 – 200)
Bangladesh 1158 (1017 – 1315) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 13 (10 – 18)
Belarus 1075 (940 – 1212) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 27 (17 – 66)
Belgium 390 (328 – 436) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -110 (44 – -24)
Benin 27 (11 – 39) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 23 (5.5 – -11)
Bolivia 213 (184 – 241) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 20 (11 – 91)
Bosnia and Herzegovina 33 (20 – 47) Unsure 1 (0.7 – 1.3) -400 (9.1 – -8.2)
Brazil 13516 (11393 – 15647) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (10 – 16)
Bulgaria 47 (30 – 61) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.3) -140 (11 – -9.6)
Cameroon 140 (118 – 162) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 8.9 (5.9 – 18)
Canada 1340 (1169 – 1493) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -290 (42 – -31)
Central African Republic 36 (19 – 53) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.9) 6.4 (3.6 – 35)
Chad 32 (19 – 45) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.4) 52 (7.5 – -10)
Chile 2354 (2023 – 2675) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 10 (8.8 – 13)
China 10 (3 – 15) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 8.8 (3.1 – -10)
Colombia 725 (621 – 831) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 14 (10 – 22)
Cote dIvoire 64 (42 – 81) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.4) 20 (7.8 – -31)
Croatia 21 (3 – 36) Unsure 1.2 (0.6 – 1.8) 17 (3.7 – -5.8)
Cuba 22 (8 – 32) Unsure 1 (0.6 – 1.4) 64 (5.7 – -7)
Czechia 60 (41 – 77) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 32 (8.4 – -17)
Democratic Republic of the Congo 74 (51 – 89) Likely increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.4) 21 (8.1 – -41)
Denmark 86 (65 – 104) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -18 (150 – -8.6)
Djibouti 27 (14 – 38) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.6) 10 (4.4 – -31)
Dominican Republic 314 (269 – 355) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 290 (27 – -33)
Ecuador 664 (504 – 805) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 43 (8.5 – -14)
Egypt 458 (378 – 518) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 31 (16 – 1000)
El Salvador 74 (53 – 94) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 22 (8.5 – -34)
Equatorial Guinea 34 (17 – 47) Likely increasing 1.4 (1 – 1.9) 9 (4 – -38)
Estonia 13 (2 – 23) Likely increasing 1.5 (0.7 – 2.3) 6.6 (2.5 – -10)
Finland 69 (45 – 86) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -20 (39 – -7.7)
France 574 (492 – 647) Decreasing 0.8 (0.7 – 0.9) -8.6 (-14 – -6.1)
Gabon 107 (84 – 126) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.5) 11 (6.4 – 35)
Germany 849 (747 – 954) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -78 (80 – -26)
Ghana 214 (175 – 242) Decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -19 (-130 – -10)
Greece 25 (13 – 39) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.9 – 1.7) 10 (4 – -22)
Guatemala 126 (101 – 146) Increasing 1.3 (1.1 – 1.6) 8.3 (5.4 – 17)
Guinea 95 (76 – 115) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 21 (8.9 – -58)
Guinea Bissau 56 (40 – 69) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 140 (12 – -14)
Honduras 112 (84 – 130) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.2) -70 (22 – -13)
Hungary 44 (26 – 59) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 30 (7.5 – -14)
Iceland 90371 (0 – 401) Likely increasing 411.4 (0 – 9.1) -0.0025 (0.55 – -2)
India 4563 (3869 – 5084) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 18 (14 – 25)
Indonesia 573 (478 – 654) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (10 – 26)
Iran 2009 (1722 – 2245) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (13 – 23)
Iraq 88 (70 – 112) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 26 (9.7 – -35)
Ireland 207 (170 – 238) Unsure 1 (0.8 – 1.1) -2200 (22 – -21)
Israel 26 (15 – 35) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.5 – 1) -15 (23 – -5.8)
Italy 1068 (928 – 1174) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -57 (120 – -23)
Japan 89 (65 – 106) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -22 (44 – -8.8)
Kazakhstan 186 (158 – 213) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.2) 44 (14 – -42)
Kosovo 19 (8 – 30) Likely increasing 1.4 (0.8 – 2) 6.1 (2.8 – -33)
Kuwait 978 (845 – 1124) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 9.3 (7.7 – 12)
Kyrgyzstan 28 (14 – 39) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.4) 140 (7.5 – -8.7)
Latvia 15 (5 – 24) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.9) 9.2 (3.4 – -12)
Lebanon 17 (6 – 27) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.6) 40 (5.4 – -7.2)
Lithuania 18 (6 – 28) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.8 – 1.8) 8.8 (3.4 – -15)
Luxembourg 16 (4 – 28) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 1.9) 11 (3.2 – -7.5)
Malaysia 45 (28 – 60) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -32 (17 – -7.9)
Maldives 49 (31 – 63) Unsure 1.1 (0.8 – 1.3) 38 (8.8 – -16)
Mexico 2308 (2002 – 2641) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 16 (12 – 22)
Moldova 174 (146 – 199) Increasing 1.2 (1 – 1.3) 16 (9 – 61)
Mongolia 28 (12 – 38) Increasing 2.2 (1.3 – 3) 2.9 (1.9 – 5.9)
Morocco 112 (87 – 132) Decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1) -16 (-96 – -8.7)
Nepal 35 (19 – 50) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 2) 6 (3.4 – 27)
Netherlands 246 (208 – 286) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -41 (62 – -15)
New Zealand 4470 (0 – 146) Likely increasing 19.5 (0.2 – 5.7) 0.0021 (0.94 – -4.1)
Niger 22 (7 – 36) Likely increasing 1.3 (0.7 – 1.9) 10 (3.5 – -12)
Nigeria 215 (187 – 242) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -36 (93 – -15)
North Macedonia 27 (15 – 40) Unsure 1.2 (0.8 – 1.5) 18 (5.4 – -14)
Norway 29 (16 – 41) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.6 – 1.1) -17 (18 – -5.7)
Oman 287 (250 – 324) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.5) 8.5 (6.3 – 13)
Pakistan 1743 (1555 – 1925) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 30 (20 – 58)
Palestine 11 (0 – 18) Unsure 1.4 (0.2 – 2.6) 10 (1.8 – -2.8)
Panama 175 (149 – 196) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -690 (25 – -23)
Paraguay 21 (9 – 31) Likely decreasing 0.8 (0.5 – 1) -9.4 (50 – -4.3)
Peru 4054 (3455 – 4632) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.2) 20 (14 – 35)
Philippines 270 (220 – 310) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 37 (15 – -69)
Poland 409 (351 – 463) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 24 (14 – 110)
Portugal 241 (198 – 283) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.8 – 1) -36 (66 – -14)
Puerto Rico 73 (49 – 96) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 32 (8.9 – -19)
Qatar 1587 (1358 – 1783) Increasing 1.2 (1.2 – 1.3) 12 (10 – 16)
Romania 264 (219 – 306) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) -52 (49 – -17)
Russia 11680 (10493 – 12852) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 44 (29 – 93)
Saudi Arabia 2463 (2114 – 2804) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 21)
Senegal 118 (95 – 136) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.3) 18 (9.1 – -630)
Serbia 76 (59 – 95) Likely decreasing 0.9 (0.7 – 1.1) -33 (27 – -10)
Singapore 780 (681 – 865) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 42 (22 – 1500)
Slovakia 12 (2 – 21) Unsure 1.3 (0.6 – 2.1) 11 (2.8 – -6.1)
Somalia 56 (38 – 70) Unsure 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 40 (9.4 – -17)
South Africa 813 (689 – 935) Increasing 1.3 (1.2 – 1.4) 11 (8.4 – 14)
South Korea 28 (18 – 38) Likely increasing 1.3 (1 – 1.7) 9.5 (4.4 – -63)
Spain 875 (785 – 944) Decreasing 0.9 (0.9 – 1) -53 (170 – -23)
Sri Lanka 22 (10 – 32) Unsure 1.1 (0.7 – 1.5) 40 (5.6 – -7.8)
Sudan 152 (127 – 174) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.4) 12 (7.7 – 34)
Sweden 634 (549 – 725) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 35 (18 – 680)
Switzerland 55 (38 – 70) Unsure 0.9 (0.7 – 1.2) -230 (12 – -11)
Thailand 11 (0 – 20) Unsure 1.4 (0.5 – 2.3) 8.6 (2.3 – -5.3)
Tunisia 81 (0 – 39) Unsure 1.8 (0.2 – 3.2) 5.3 (1.5 – -2.8)
Turkey 1806 (1600 – 2039) Unsure 1 (0.9 – 1.1) 120 (30 – -63)
Ukraine 518 (444 – 593) Likely increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.2) 40 (18 – -200)
United Arab Emirates 838 (712 – 941) Increasing 1.2 (1.1 – 1.3) 15 (11 – 23)
United Kingdom 4007 (3617 – 4437) Likely decreasing 1 (0.9 – 1) -56 (420 – -27)
United Republic of Tanzania 11 (2 – 19) Likely decreasing 0.7 (0.3 – 1) -7.3 (30 – -3.3)
United States of America 26493 (22933 – 29510) Increasing 1.1 (1 – 1.1) 50 (26 – -5200)
Uruguay 27 (21 – 33) Increasing 1.8 (1.4 – 2.4) 5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan 55 (36 – 70) Likely increasing 1.1 (0.9 – 1.3) 25 (8 – -23)
Zambia 86 (52 – 123) Increasing 1.5 (1.1 – 1.8) 6.3 (3.9 – 15)