Global summary

Identifying changes in the reproduction number, rate of spread, and doubling time during the course of the COVID-19 outbreak whilst accounting for potential biases due to delays in case reporting both nationally and subnationally. These results are impacted by changes in testing effort, increases and decreases in testing effort will increase and decrease reproduction number estimates respectively (see Methods for further explanation).

Using data available up to the: 2020-05-18

Note that it takes time for infection to cause symptoms, to get tested for SARS-CoV-2 infection, for a positive test to return and ultimately to enter the case data presented here. In other words, today’s case data are only informative of new infections about two weeks ago. This is reflected in the plots below, which are by date of infection.

Expected daily confirmed cases by country

Figure 1: The results of the latest reproduction number estimates (based on estimated confirmed cases with a date of infection on the 2020-05-08) can be summarised by whether confirmed cases are likely increasing or decreasing. This represents the strength of the evidence that the reproduction number in each region is greater than or less than 1, respectively (see the methods for details). Countries with fewer than 60 confirmed cases reported on a single day are not included in the analysis (light grey) as there is not enough data to reliably estimate the reproduction number.

Summary of latest reproduction number and confirmed case count estimates by date of infection

Figure 1: Confirmed cases with date of infection on the 2020-05-08 and the time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light bar = 90% credible interval; dark bar = the 50% credible interval.). Regions are ordered by the number of expected daily confirmed cases and shaded based on the expected change in daily confirmedcases. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control and a single case required for elimination.

Reproduction numbers over time in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 2: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in the six regions expected to have the most new confirmed cases

Figure 3: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in the regions expected to have the highest number of new confirmed cases. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Reproduction numbers over time in all regions

Figure 4: Time-varying estimate of the effective reproduction number (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The horizontal dotted line indicates the target value of 1 for the effective reproduction no. required for control. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Confirmed cases and their estimated date of infection in all regions

Figure 5: Confirmed cases by date of report (bars) and their estimated date of infection (light ribbon = 90% credible interval; dark ribbon = the 50% credible interval) in all regions. Estimates from existing data are shown up to the 2020-05-08 from when forecasts are shown. These should be considered indicative only. Confidence in the estimated values is indicated by translucency with increased translucency corresponding to reduced confidence. The vertical dashed line indicates the date of report generation.

Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-08)

Table 1: Latest estimates (as of the 2020-05-08) of the number of confirmed cases by date of infection, the effective reproduction number, and the doubling time (when negative this corresponds to the halving time) in each region. The mean and 90% credible interval is shown.

Country	New confirmed cases by infection date	Expected change in daily cases	Effective reproduction no.	Doubling/halving time (days)
Afghanistan	424 (366 – 475)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (7.7 – 16)
Algeria	191 (168 – 218)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	79 (19 – -35)
Argentina	321 (285 – 353)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (8.2 – 20)
Armenia	176 (145 – 198)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	20 (10 – 370)
Australia	23 (10 – 34)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	32 (5.5 – -8.2)
Austria	64 (44 – 81)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	13 (6.3 – -450)
Azerbaijan	114 (90 – 132)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	19 (9.3 – -230)
Bahrain	300 (267 – 329)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	25 (13 – 200)
Bangladesh	1158 (1017 – 1315)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	13 (10 – 18)
Belarus	1075 (940 – 1212)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	27 (17 – 66)
Belgium	390 (328 – 436)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-110 (44 – -24)
Benin	27 (11 – 39)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	23 (5.5 – -11)
Bolivia	213 (184 – 241)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	20 (11 – 91)
Bosnia and Herzegovina	33 (20 – 47)	Unsure	1 (0.7 – 1.3)	-400 (9.1 – -8.2)
Brazil	13516 (11393 – 15647)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (10 – 16)
Bulgaria	47 (30 – 61)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.3)	-140 (11 – -9.6)
Cameroon	140 (118 – 162)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	8.9 (5.9 – 18)
Canada	1340 (1169 – 1493)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-290 (42 – -31)
Central African Republic	36 (19 – 53)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.9)	6.4 (3.6 – 35)
Chad	32 (19 – 45)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.4)	52 (7.5 – -10)
Chile	2354 (2023 – 2675)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	10 (8.8 – 13)
China	10 (3 – 15)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.7 – 1.9)	8.8 (3.1 – -10)
Colombia	725 (621 – 831)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	14 (10 – 22)
Cote dIvoire	64 (42 – 81)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.4)	20 (7.8 – -31)
Croatia	21 (3 – 36)	Unsure	1.2 (0.6 – 1.8)	17 (3.7 – -5.8)
Cuba	22 (8 – 32)	Unsure	1 (0.6 – 1.4)	64 (5.7 – -7)
Czechia	60 (41 – 77)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	32 (8.4 – -17)
Democratic Republic of the Congo	74 (51 – 89)	Likely increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.4)	21 (8.1 – -41)
Denmark	86 (65 – 104)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-18 (150 – -8.6)
Djibouti	27 (14 – 38)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.6)	10 (4.4 – -31)
Dominican Republic	314 (269 – 355)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	290 (27 – -33)
Ecuador	664 (504 – 805)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	43 (8.5 – -14)
Egypt	458 (378 – 518)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	31 (16 – 1000)
El Salvador	74 (53 – 94)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	22 (8.5 – -34)
Equatorial Guinea	34 (17 – 47)	Likely increasing	1.4 (1 – 1.9)	9 (4 – -38)
Estonia	13 (2 – 23)	Likely increasing	1.5 (0.7 – 2.3)	6.6 (2.5 – -10)
Finland	69 (45 – 86)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-20 (39 – -7.7)
France	574 (492 – 647)	Decreasing	0.8 (0.7 – 0.9)	-8.6 (-14 – -6.1)
Gabon	107 (84 – 126)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.5)	11 (6.4 – 35)
Germany	849 (747 – 954)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-78 (80 – -26)
Ghana	214 (175 – 242)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-19 (-130 – -10)
Greece	25 (13 – 39)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.9 – 1.7)	10 (4 – -22)
Guatemala	126 (101 – 146)	Increasing	1.3 (1.1 – 1.6)	8.3 (5.4 – 17)
Guinea	95 (76 – 115)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	21 (8.9 – -58)
Guinea Bissau	56 (40 – 69)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	140 (12 – -14)
Honduras	112 (84 – 130)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.2)	-70 (22 – -13)
Hungary	44 (26 – 59)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	30 (7.5 – -14)
Iceland	90371 (0 – 401)	Likely increasing	411.4 (0 – 9.1)	-0.0025 (0.55 – -2)
India	4563 (3869 – 5084)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	18 (14 – 25)
Indonesia	573 (478 – 654)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (10 – 26)
Iran	2009 (1722 – 2245)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (13 – 23)
Iraq	88 (70 – 112)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	26 (9.7 – -35)
Ireland	207 (170 – 238)	Unsure	1 (0.8 – 1.1)	-2200 (22 – -21)
Israel	26 (15 – 35)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.5 – 1)	-15 (23 – -5.8)
Italy	1068 (928 – 1174)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-57 (120 – -23)
Japan	89 (65 – 106)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-22 (44 – -8.8)
Kazakhstan	186 (158 – 213)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.2)	44 (14 – -42)
Kosovo	19 (8 – 30)	Likely increasing	1.4 (0.8 – 2)	6.1 (2.8 – -33)
Kuwait	978 (845 – 1124)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	9.3 (7.7 – 12)
Kyrgyzstan	28 (14 – 39)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.4)	140 (7.5 – -8.7)
Latvia	15 (5 – 24)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.9)	9.2 (3.4 – -12)
Lebanon	17 (6 – 27)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.6)	40 (5.4 – -7.2)
Lithuania	18 (6 – 28)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.8 – 1.8)	8.8 (3.4 – -15)
Luxembourg	16 (4 – 28)	Unsure	1.3 (0.6 – 1.9)	11 (3.2 – -7.5)
Malaysia	45 (28 – 60)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-32 (17 – -7.9)
Maldives	49 (31 – 63)	Unsure	1.1 (0.8 – 1.3)	38 (8.8 – -16)
Mexico	2308 (2002 – 2641)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	16 (12 – 22)
Moldova	174 (146 – 199)	Increasing	1.2 (1 – 1.3)	16 (9 – 61)
Mongolia	28 (12 – 38)	Increasing	2.2 (1.3 – 3)	2.9 (1.9 – 5.9)
Morocco	112 (87 – 132)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1)	-16 (-96 – -8.7)
Nepal	35 (19 – 50)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 2)	6 (3.4 – 27)
Netherlands	246 (208 – 286)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-41 (62 – -15)
New Zealand	4470 (0 – 146)	Likely increasing	19.5 (0.2 – 5.7)	0.0021 (0.94 – -4.1)
Niger	22 (7 – 36)	Likely increasing	1.3 (0.7 – 1.9)	10 (3.5 – -12)
Nigeria	215 (187 – 242)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-36 (93 – -15)
North Macedonia	27 (15 – 40)	Unsure	1.2 (0.8 – 1.5)	18 (5.4 – -14)
Norway	29 (16 – 41)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.6 – 1.1)	-17 (18 – -5.7)
Oman	287 (250 – 324)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.5)	8.5 (6.3 – 13)
Pakistan	1743 (1555 – 1925)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	30 (20 – 58)
Palestine	11 (0 – 18)	Unsure	1.4 (0.2 – 2.6)	10 (1.8 – -2.8)
Panama	175 (149 – 196)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-690 (25 – -23)
Paraguay	21 (9 – 31)	Likely decreasing	0.8 (0.5 – 1)	-9.4 (50 – -4.3)
Peru	4054 (3455 – 4632)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.2)	20 (14 – 35)
Philippines	270 (220 – 310)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	37 (15 – -69)
Poland	409 (351 – 463)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	24 (14 – 110)
Portugal	241 (198 – 283)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.8 – 1)	-36 (66 – -14)
Puerto Rico	73 (49 – 96)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	32 (8.9 – -19)
Qatar	1587 (1358 – 1783)	Increasing	1.2 (1.2 – 1.3)	12 (10 – 16)
Romania	264 (219 – 306)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	-52 (49 – -17)
Russia	11680 (10493 – 12852)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	44 (29 – 93)
Saudi Arabia	2463 (2114 – 2804)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (11 – 21)
Senegal	118 (95 – 136)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.3)	18 (9.1 – -630)
Serbia	76 (59 – 95)	Likely decreasing	0.9 (0.7 – 1.1)	-33 (27 – -10)
Singapore	780 (681 – 865)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	42 (22 – 1500)
Slovakia	12 (2 – 21)	Unsure	1.3 (0.6 – 2.1)	11 (2.8 – -6.1)
Somalia	56 (38 – 70)	Unsure	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	40 (9.4 – -17)
South Africa	813 (689 – 935)	Increasing	1.3 (1.2 – 1.4)	11 (8.4 – 14)
South Korea	28 (18 – 38)	Likely increasing	1.3 (1 – 1.7)	9.5 (4.4 – -63)
Spain	875 (785 – 944)	Decreasing	0.9 (0.9 – 1)	-53 (170 – -23)
Sri Lanka	22 (10 – 32)	Unsure	1.1 (0.7 – 1.5)	40 (5.6 – -7.8)
Sudan	152 (127 – 174)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.4)	12 (7.7 – 34)
Sweden	634 (549 – 725)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	35 (18 – 680)
Switzerland	55 (38 – 70)	Unsure	0.9 (0.7 – 1.2)	-230 (12 – -11)
Thailand	11 (0 – 20)	Unsure	1.4 (0.5 – 2.3)	8.6 (2.3 – -5.3)
Tunisia	81 (0 – 39)	Unsure	1.8 (0.2 – 3.2)	5.3 (1.5 – -2.8)
Turkey	1806 (1600 – 2039)	Unsure	1 (0.9 – 1.1)	120 (30 – -63)
Ukraine	518 (444 – 593)	Likely increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.2)	40 (18 – -200)
United Arab Emirates	838 (712 – 941)	Increasing	1.2 (1.1 – 1.3)	15 (11 – 23)
United Kingdom	4007 (3617 – 4437)	Likely decreasing	1 (0.9 – 1)	-56 (420 – -27)
United Republic of Tanzania	11 (2 – 19)	Likely decreasing	0.7 (0.3 – 1)	-7.3 (30 – -3.3)
United States of America	26493 (22933 – 29510)	Increasing	1.1 (1 – 1.1)	50 (26 – -5200)
Uruguay	27 (21 – 33)	Increasing	1.8 (1.4 – 2.4)	5.7 (3.7 – 11)
Uzbekistan	55 (36 – 70)	Likely increasing	1.1 (0.9 – 1.3)	25 (8 – -23)
Zambia	86 (52 – 123)	Increasing	1.5 (1.1 – 1.8)	6.3 (3.9 – 15)